Predicting severity of acute pancreatitis enables optimization of care, reducing morbidity and length of stay. Modified adult scoring systems have not been able to adequately predict severity in children.
This was a retrospective study of children presenting with a first episode of acute pancreatitis from 2002-2020 in a single tertiary paediatric surgical centre. Serum markers including CRP at 48 hours of admission were analysed. Promising biomarkers underwent ROC (Receiver Operating Curve) analysis, and these were compared to the modified Glasgow Pancreas Score. An AUC (Area Under Curve) >0.90 was taken as an excellent predictor of severity.
Data of 59 children were analysed, median age 13 years. 22 patients (37%) had a severe episode. ROC analysis demonstrated CRP as the best predictor of severity giving an AUC of 0.92. Optimum cut off value for CRP was 107.5mg/L (p108mg/L within 48 hours of admission can be used to predict severity of acute pancreatitis in children with greater accuracy than current scoring systems.
Diagnostic Test.
Level I.
