Development and validation of risk models for mortality and morbidity in 12 major pediatric surgical procedures: A study from the National Clinical Database-Pediatric of Japan
jpedsurg.org shows its articles on its own site.
Read the article on jpedsurg.org ↗Article · Jun 2020 · 1 min read
In brief
In brief
Japanese researchers developed and validated predictive models for 30-day mortality and morbidity across 12 major pediatric surgical procedures using national registry data. The models demonstrated excellent discrimination (C-index 0.924 for mortality, 0.830 for morbidity), providing surgeons with evidence-based tools to stratify surgical risk and inform preoperative counseling for families.
Written by the GCMD Library team from the article.
Purpose
To establish and validate risk models of mortality and morbidity associated with 12 major pediatric surgical procedures using the National Clinical Database-Pediatric (NCD-P) data.
Methods
We used the NCD-P data for the development and validation datasets. By using multivariate logistic regression to analyze the development dataset, we created a prediction model for 30-day mortality and morbidity in 12 major pediatric surgical procedures, including tracheoplasty, pneumonectomy, fundoplication, total/subtotal excision of malignant tumor, and surgeries for Hirschsprung disease, anorectal malformation, biliary atresia, choledocal cyst, midgut volvulus, funnel chest, gastrointestinal perforation, and intestinal obstruction. We selected variables that were almost identical to those used in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric (NSQIP-P). The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and composite morbidity. We assessed the obtained models using the C-indices of the development and validation datasets.
Results
Overall, 10 and 21 variables were identified for mortality and morbidity, respectively. C-indices of mortality were 0.940 and 0.924 in the development and validation datasets, respectively. C-indices of morbidity were 0.832 and 0.830 in the development and validation datasets, respectively.
Conclusions
Based on the NCD-P data, we developed satisfactory risk models for mortality and morbidity prediction in major pediatric surgeries.
Level of evidence
Level I (Prognosis Study).